SES Cancels Two GEO Satellites - Deep Dive Weekly
Edition 001 · Inaugural report
Satellite Communications
Industry Briefing
Industry Briefing
Most significant event of the week
SES cancels 2 GEO satellites as Networks business drives revenue growth — a structural signal, not a footnote
What happened: SES reported Q1 2026 results on May 12, with its post-Intelsat Networks business outperforming expectations. Buried in the release: SES cancelled two planned GEO satellites.
Why it matters: This is the most direct signal yet that a major incumbent operator has structurally written off the GEO capacity expansion playbook. Cancelling already-planned satellites is not a cost-saving measure — it's a strategic concession that demand does not justify the capital. Combined with Telesat's 25% GEO revenue decline and Hughes' subscriber losses reported the same week, the data is now overwhelming: GEO commoditization is accelerating faster than legacy operators modeled. For financial analysts, this reframes the SES investment thesis — growth must now come from managed networks, government, and multi-orbit services, not traditional capacity leasing. The GEO era as a capex growth story is over.
Why it matters: This is the most direct signal yet that a major incumbent operator has structurally written off the GEO capacity expansion playbook. Cancelling already-planned satellites is not a cost-saving measure — it's a strategic concession that demand does not justify the capital. Combined with Telesat's 25% GEO revenue decline and Hughes' subscriber losses reported the same week, the data is now overwhelming: GEO commoditization is accelerating faster than legacy operators modeled. For financial analysts, this reframes the SES investment thesis — growth must now come from managed networks, government, and multi-orbit services, not traditional capacity leasing. The GEO era as a capex growth story is over.
Market at a glance
Global SATCOM market (2026E)
$27.6B
+13% CAGR → $83B by 2035
Starlink subscribers
10M+
Crossed 10M Feb 2026 · 150+ markets
Amazon Leo (orbit)
302
Enterprise beta live Apr 8, 2026
SES + Intelsat 2026
€3.5B
Guided; Networks outperforming
Starlink 2025 revenue (est.)
$11.6B
63% EBITDA margin · IPO watch
SATCOM equipment (2032E)
$56.1B
+11.6% CAGR from $29B in 2026
Market sizing — SATCOM revenue projections
Breaking news — week of May 12–23, 2026
May 12, 2026GEO — major
SES cancels 2 GEO satellites; Networks business drives Q1 revenue growth
SES Q1 2026 showed the Networks segment outperforming expectations with managed services revenue offsetting capacity leasing declines. The headline: SES cancelled two planned GEO satellites — a structural retreat from the legacy expansion model. Hughes simultaneously reported declining broadband subscribers and falling service revenue, reinforcing the industry-wide GEO commoditization narrative. O3b mPOWER satellites 11–13 remain planned for H2 2026.
May 12, 2026LEO — D2D
AST SpaceMobile holds 45-BlueBird target despite Blue Origin launch failure
CEO Abel Avellan confirmed AST maintains its 2026 target of 45 BlueBird satellites despite a Blue Origin launch failure. BlueBird 8–10 now target mid-June Falcon 9. FCC commercial D2D authorization received. 98.9 Mbps peak demonstrated. $3.2B+ liquidity. AT&T, Verizon, and 50+ global MNO partners remain committed.
May 11, 2026D2D — GEO
Space42 + Skylo complete Thuraya-4 D2D integration — commercial rollout in 37+ countries
3GPP NTN-compliant platform integrated with Thuraya-4 GEO satellite. Live bi-directional voice demonstrated with unmodified SIM — no hardware changes needed. Rolling commercial deployment across Europe, MENA, and parts of Asia. Skylo is building an asset-light multi-orbit aggregation layer challenging proprietary constellations on interoperability.
May 8, 2026LEO — finance
Globalstar grows revenue 17% in Q1 amid Amazon acquisition process
Globalstar reported 17% revenue growth in Q1 2026, driven by Apple Emergency SOS fees and IoT subscriber growth — while undergoing Amazon acquisition (expected close 2027). MDA Space reported satellite revenue growing 40% in Q1, with CEO Mike Greenley stating "no change" to operations due to the Globalstar deal.
April 27, 2026GEO — launch
ViaSat-3 F3 launches on Falcon Heavy — APAC coverage targeted late summer 2026
VS3 F3 launched on SpaceX Falcon Heavy. Service entry expected late summer 2026. Completes the three-satellite VS3 global constellation. Inmarsat NexusWave will bond VS3 APAC capacity with the GX fleet, enabling 250 Mbps terminals across Pacific shipping lanes.
April 8, 2026LEO — M&A
Amazon Leo enterprise beta goes live; Globalstar acquisition announced
Amazon Leo launched enterprise beta with Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, JetBlue, and NASA. Terminals: 400 Mbps–1 Gbps. Public launch targeted late 2026. Globalstar acquisition adds L/S-band spectrum and Apple/Android device integrations. FCC 1,618-satellite deadline has a pending extension request.
May 5, 2026GEO — finance
Telesat GEO revenue falls 25% in Q1; Lightspeed LEO on track for Q1 2028
Telesat GEO declined 25% YoY in Q1 2026. Full-year 2026 GEO guidance: C$300–320M (~$220–235M). Lightspeed LEO constellation targeted for Q1 2028 service entry. Hughes' simultaneous subscriber decline confirms GEO fixed broadband deterioration is industry-wide.
LEO broadband — competitive deep dive
Starlink (SpaceX)
Crossed 10M subscribers February 2026. Estimated 2025 revenues: $11.6B with 63% EBITDA margin. Maritime targeting $1.9B in 2026 (+55% YoY); aviation grew ~10x in 2025. V3 satellites (1 Tbps each) via Starship H2 2026. ARPU declined ~18% entering price-sensitive markets. $17B EchoStar spectrum acquisition (Sep 2025) gives deepest D2C spectrum position. SpaceX IPO discussions at $1.75T valuation imply Starlink EV above $313B.
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper)
Rebranded November 2025. Enterprise beta live April 8. Terminals: 400 Mbps–1 Gbps. FCC extension requested for 1,618-satellite deadline. Globalstar acquisition (close 2027) adds L/S-band spectrum and device-level D2D integrations. Internal projections: $20B annual revenue by 2030. AWS integration is the key enterprise differentiator.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)
FCC commercial D2D broadband authorization received. BlueBird 8–10 targeting mid-June Falcon 9. Target: 45 satellites by end-2026 for continuous US coverage. Asset-light model — works within existing MNO-licensed spectrum via carrier partnerships. 98.9 Mbps peak in orbit. No additional user hardware required.
Eutelsat OneWeb
Merged GEO + OneWeb LEO in 2023. Faces heavy debt, declining GEO revenue, and slower LEO monetization. Key strategic card: EU IRIS² sovereign broadband participation. Enterprise and government connectivity are primary LEO revenue targets.
LEO revenue share (2026E estimate)
Analyst projections. Amazon Leo revenue nascent in 2026 but capturing high-margin enterprise contracts at pace.
GEO / HEO operators — financial snapshot
Viasat satellite fleet status
VS3 F1 (Americas)
ImpairedAntenna anomaly; ~10% rated capacity. $420M insurance claim filed.
VS3 F2 (EMEA)
In serviceLaunched Nov 2025. Operational. NexusWave maritime bonded service enabled. Near-term revenue catalyst.
VS3 F3 (APAC)
In transitLaunched Apr 27 on Falcon Heavy. In transit to GEO slot. Service entry: late summer 2026.
GX7/8/9 + Inmarsat-8
Pipeline3 Ka-band GEO + 4 L-band GEO in production pipeline for longer-term fleet strategy.
Viasat Q3 FY2026 (calendar Q1 2026) highlights
Revenue: $1.16B. Net income: $25M — reversal from $158M net loss same period last year (influenced by Ligado/AST spectrum payments). Defense & Advanced Technologies: +9% YoY. Fixed broadband: -13% YoY. FCF: $60M. Capex guidance reduced $100M to ~$1.2B. Net leverage: 3.6x EBITDA. Primary goal: repay $300M Inmarsat term loan, targeting long-term leverage below 3x. Board Strategic Review Committee evaluating potential separation of government and commercial businesses.
D2D & mobile satellite services
D2D market — state of play, May 2026
2025 validated messaging; 2026 is the year voice and data scale. 3GPP Release 17 established the NTN standard; Release 18 enhances mobility and power efficiency. NTN-ready chipsets from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Sony Altair entering mass production. WRC-27 (2027) is the pivotal spectrum governance event. D2D transitioning from feature to standalone revenue line — $15–25B TAM estimated by 2030.
May 11, 2026GEO D2D
Space42 + Skylo: Thuraya-4 GEO D2D — no SIM or hardware changes required
First major GEO-based commercial D2D using 3GPP NTN. Existing SIM authentication, no hardware changes. Rolling across 37+ countries. Skylo building asset-light multi-orbit aggregation layer challenging proprietary constellations on interoperability and carrier-friendliness.
Ongoing 2026LEO D2C
Starlink Direct-to-Cell: texting live, voice & data expanding
663+ DTC satellites deployed. Texting live in the US via T-Mobile. $17B EchoStar acquisition gives deepest terrestrial-reuse spectrum position. Only operator offering both proprietary broadband and D2C at simultaneous scale.
April 2026M&A
Amazon acquires Globalstar — L/S-band spectrum and Apple/Android D2D ecosystem
Expected close 2027. Gives Amazon Leo L/S-band MSS spectrum, Globalstar's fleet, and Apple Emergency SOS integration. Positions Amazon Leo in both enterprise broadband and consumer D2D, across 120+ country regulatory footprint.
IoT & vertical market drivers
Maritime
Starlink maritime targeting $1.9B in 2026 (+55% YoY). Inmarsat NexusWave bonds VS3 F2 + GX at 250 Mbps. Highest ARPU vertical with multi-orbit redundancy requirements growing.
Aviation (IFC)
Starlink aviation grew ~10x in 2025. Viasat expects +1,100 IFC aircraft from VS3 F2/F3. SES aero growing in multi-orbit IFC. Highest per-aircraft ARPU in satcom.
IoT / NB-NTN
Skylo + Vodafone, Skylo + Orange France, Viasat + Orbcomm IoT Nano, Iridium NTN Direct — all signed in the past 6 months. NB-NTN chipsets entering mass market 2026–2027.
Land mobile / remote
Mining, forestry, agriculture, and disaster relief emerging as the next IoT growth vertical. Private cellular networks being supplemented or replaced by satellite IoT overlays.
Sovereignty & geopolitics — strategic connectivity independence
IRIS²: EU sovereign multi-orbit communications network
The EU's IRIS² initiative is the most significant sovereignty-driven satcom investment globally. A direct geopolitical response to European dependency on SpaceX and vulnerability exposed by the Ukraine conflict. Key participants: SES (post-Intelsat), Eutelsat/OneWeb, Airbus, Thales. For SES and Eutelsat, IRIS² is a potential revenue floor underwritten by sovereign mandate rather than commercial competition. Risk: European procurement timelines are long and political consensus fragile.
The Starlink dependency problem — Europe's strategic exposure
The Ukraine conflict made visible what policymakers had ignored: critical communications infrastructure controlled by a single private US company introduces sovereign risk. Several EU member states have restricted Starlink for certain government communications. The core policy question: should emergency services, national broadband, and critical infrastructure rely on commercially operated foreign satellite networks? This is reshaping procurement policy across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.
Regional sovereign constellations — watch list
China: Guowang/SatNet (13,000-satellite plan) and Honghu-3 advancing. Most credible non-Western LEO competitor on a 2027–2030 horizon, targeting APAC and BRI corridor markets.
India: ISRO's GSAT-N2, OneWeb India, and private players (Pixxel, Agnikul) building a domestic ecosystem. Government explicit about reducing foreign satellite dependency.
Middle East: Space42 (UAE) positioning Thuraya-4 as a sovereign regional platform via Skylo D2D partnership — MENA reach without dependency on US or European networks.
Africa: Multiple nations evaluating sovereign HTS capacity. Starlink's rapid Africa expansion simultaneously solves connectivity gaps and raises sovereignty concerns.
India: ISRO's GSAT-N2, OneWeb India, and private players (Pixxel, Agnikul) building a domestic ecosystem. Government explicit about reducing foreign satellite dependency.
Middle East: Space42 (UAE) positioning Thuraya-4 as a sovereign regional platform via Skylo D2D partnership — MENA reach without dependency on US or European networks.
Africa: Multiple nations evaluating sovereign HTS capacity. Starlink's rapid Africa expansion simultaneously solves connectivity gaps and raises sovereignty concerns.
WRC-27 — spectrum sovereignty as the defining regulatory moment
WRC-27 will set spectrum governance rules determining who can operate D2C and NTN services in which bands for the next decade. Starlink's terrestrial spectrum reuse model (enabled by the EchoStar acquisition) is commercially powerful but regulatory contentious — non-US operators argue it gives a single US company structural global market advantages. This is the spectrum equivalent of the 5G supply chain debate — a geopolitical contest dressed as a technical standards process.
Analyst signals — key investment themes Q2 2026
THEME 01
GEO commoditization is structural — SES cancelling satellites is the clearest proof yet
Telesat GEO -25%, Hughes subscriber declines, SES cancelling planned satellites, Eutelsat under financial stress. Reframe GEO investments around defensible niches: government high-assurance, media distribution, equatorial coverage gaps, and managed network services. Pure GEO capacity plays carry elevated structural risk through 2030.
THEME 02
D2D is transitioning from feature to standalone revenue line — $15–25B TAM by 2030
Skylo/Space42 GEO D2D launch, AST FCC authorization, Starlink DTC expansion — all signal D2D is becoming mainstream MNO procurement. Multi-orbit D2D strategies with 3GPP NTN standards-based platforms will capture disproportionate MNO wallet share. Amazon Leo post-Globalstar is the most strategically significant D2D move of 2026.
THEME 03
Starlink IPO is the defining market event of 2026–2027
$11.6B 2025 revenue, 63% EBITDA margin, 10M+ subscribers. SpaceX at $1.75T implies Starlink EV above $313B. Key risks: ARPU compression in price-sensitive markets; V3 via Starship; xAI/Starlink narrative inflating valuations. Watch SpaceX secondary market transactions as leading IPO indicators.
THEME 04
Maritime and aviation are the highest-margin battlegrounds — fleet lock-in happening now
Starlink maritime targeting $1.9B (+55%). Viasat/Inmarsat NexusWave at 250 Mbps. SES and Viasat defending airline IFC. These verticals command 4–10x residential ARPU with high switching costs and growing multi-orbit redundancy requirements. Operators locking in the largest fleets in 2026–2027 gain structural advantages through 2030+.
THEME 05
Spectrum is the new moat — WRC-27 will define it for a decade
Starlink's $17B EchoStar deal and Amazon's Globalstar acquisition both bet that licensed spectrum ownership is the durable competitive differentiator as satellite hardware costs fall. Companies controlling L/S, Ka/Ku, and terrestrial MSS bands hold structural advantages in D2D, IoT, and government markets. WRC-27 geopolitics create policy risk for operators dependent on US regulatory frameworks.
